网络系统可靠性近似估算方法的对比研究

Comparison and research among methods of reliability estimation for network system

在讨论了网络系统可靠性计算难题的基础上,以满足工程实际的精度需要并减少分析计算工作量为目标,对现有的4种近似估算网络系统可靠性的方法进行了分析,指出了各种方法产生误差的原因,定性分析了有关方法为减少误差所采取措施的合理性。针对2种不同复杂程度的典型网络系统,通过数值算例,给出了单元可靠度不同情形下的系统可靠度计算值;与精确算法对比之后,得到了量化的误差.基于对各方法的工作量和误差的综合分析,给出了具有工程指导意义的建议.

Based on the discussion of the complicated problem of the reliability estimation for the network system, the four existing methods of estimation are analyzed with the purpose to satisfy the demand of engineering precision and reduce the intensity of analysis and calculation. The causes of errors made by different methods are pointed out, and the rationality of the measures which are adopted to decrease the errors are qualitatively analyzed. Calculated values with different component reliability are given by the numerical computation of the typical system of different complexity. Quantificational errors are got by comparison with the exact algorithm. After a general analysis of calculation intensity and errors of each method, the suggestions are made which are significant in directing the engineering application.