灰色系统GM(1,1)模型预测流行性出血热发病趋势

Grey system GM(1,1) model prediction of epidemic hemorrhage fever tendency

目的：预测佳木斯市2006-2007年漉行性出血热（EHF）流行趋势，为该市EHF防治工作提供科学的参考依据。方法：根据佳木斯市1996～2005EHF发病率资料，运用灰色系GM（1，1）模型，预测该市2006～2007年EHF的流行趋势。结果显示，佳木斯市此间EHF的发病率呈缓慢增加趋势。

Objective： To predict the tendency to develop epidemic hemorrhage fever （EHF） from 2006 to 2007 in Jiamusi in order to provide scientific reference for the prevention and cure of EHF in the city. Method： Based on the data of Jiamusi EHF incidence from 1996 to 2005,we used the Grey system GM（1, 1） model to predict the EHF tendency in this city in 2006 to 2007. Result： The EHF incidence in Jiamusi shows a slow rise tendency.