应用混沌优化方法的月用电量预测

A forecasting model of monthly electricity consumption based on chaotic optimization

利用混沌运动的初值敏感性、遍历性、随机性等特点,通过对混沌优化搜索过程的分析,提出了基于混沌优化方法的月用电量预测模型。在此基础上,应用混沌优化方法确定月用电量预测模型参数,给出了具体实现步骤。实际月用电量预测的结果表明:此模型能够更为快速、准确地预测月用电量。

This paper proposes a forecasting model of monthly electricity consumption based on chaotic optimization by means of the initial value sensitivity, ergodicity and randomness of chaotic motion and the analysis of chaotic optimal searching process. On this basis, parameters of the forecasting model for monthly electricity consumption are determined by using chaotic optimization, and the concrete procedure to implement the proposed model is presented. The forecasting results of practical monthly electricity consumption show that this model can forecast monthly electricity consumption more rapidly and accurately.