石羊河流域年径流序列的变异诊断

Diagonsing aberrance point of hydrological sequence in Shiyang River basin using R/S method

采用重新标度极差分析法(R/S分析方法),对石羊河流域8条河流的年径流序列进行了变异诊断,计算了变异前后序列均值和年径流随时间的变化关系。结果表明,石羊河流域8条河流的年径流序列已发生了变异,变异年份分别为:杂木河1989年,西营河1989年,金塔河1973年,黄羊河1982年,古浪河1984年,大靖河1959年,东大河1967年,西大河1960年。经回归分析表明,对这些变异年份的诊断是合理的。

The article deals with researches on the hydrologic sequence of Shiyang River basin. The aberrance point of the hydrologic sequence were found out by using R/S （Rescaled Range Analysis） method for all eight branches. The average values of annual runoff sequence at fore-and-aft changes were calculated. The equations of annual runoff sequence and time were regressed. As an example, aberrance happened in the annual runoff sequence of Shiyang River,basin＇s 8 branchs,and the aberrance point was. Zamu River, 1989 ;Xiying River, 1989 ; Jinta River, 1973 ; Huangyang River, 1982; Gulang River, 1984 ; Daring River, 1959 ;Dongda River, 1967 ;Xida River, 1960. The result is rational.