化工废气排放量灰色预测的GPSM（1）模型

A GPSM(1) for Grey Prediction of Emission Quantity of Exhaust Gas from Chemical Production

在对ＧＩＭ（１）模型研究的基础上，提出了一种化工废气排放的单变量灰色幂级数曲线预测新模型〔简称ＧＰＳＭ（１）〕，并建立了辨识模型参数的优化方法。结果表明，ＧＰＳＭ（１）在有线性输出的平稳系统中，比ＧＭ（１，１）更能反映原始资料提供的信息，系统分辨率高，同态性好，预测精度理想，为环境系统的拟合、预测分析和决策开辟了新途径，从而拓宽了ＧＭ（１，１）模型在环境科学领域中的应用范围。

Based on the study of GIM(1),a new prediction model GPSM(1) of monotropic grey power series curve for exhaust gas emitted from chemical prodnction is put forward and an optimum method for identifying the model parameters is established. The result shows that compared with CM(1,1) ,GPSM(1) can reflect the information from original data with higher resolution factor,better monomorphic character and more fine prediction precision in a steady linear output system,It offers a new way for fitting, prediction analysis and decision-making of environmental system and widens GM(1, 1)'s application range in the field of environmental science.