上市公司行为短期化：来自现金分配的证据

An Empirical Study on the Cash Dividend Policy of Chinese Listed Company

股利政策被认为是公司发展战略的重要组成部份。本文在分析股利分配相关理论的基础上,通过对我国上市公司股利分配政策的考察,分析了可能影响公司股利政策的一些指标变量,并利用相关模型进行检验。研究结果表明,我国上市公司在决定是否发放现金股利和发放多少时,主要是依据公司短期盈利指标,较少考虑公司的长期发展指标。上市公司这种短期化的现金分配政策隐含着长期投资风险较大,导致投资者行为普遍短期化,从而加剧股票市场的波动。

Through the investigation concerning the cash dividends allocation and related data, this paper chose 15 independent variables to make an empirical analysis on the corporations dividends allocation policies, and it is found that when Chinese listed companies are making a decision whether the cash dividends should be distributed and what its level is, it mainly depends on the short-term profit target, but less depends on the capital structure, capital stock structure, management risk, corporation scale and other development index. Therefore, at present, among Chinese listed corporations, long-term and stable management decision is not reflected in the dividend allocation, so that longo term investors have bigger risk.