公司债券的违约风险度量技术及应用

The Measurements and Applications of Default Risk of Corporate Bonds

随着我国资本市场的进一步发展,公司债券已经成为我国资本市场重要的金融工具。因此,公司债券的违约风险已经成为投资者关注的重要因素。本文系统地论述了度量公司债券违约风险的三类主要方法：信用评级法、数理模型法和保险思想法。在此基础上,论述了我国发展债券市场提高公司债券违约风险度量技术的基本思路是重点利用信用评级方法,积极开发数理模型方法,创造条件利用保险思想模型。

With the further development of capital market in China, corporate bonds have increasingly become a very important financial instrument in the capital market of our country. Consequently. the risk of breach of contract in corporate bonds has become an important factor which investors paid special attention to. This article elaborated systematically three main approaches used in measuring the risk of breach of contract in corporate bonds, namely： the credit rating method, statistical modeling, and the insurance concept. Based on the above analysis, this article pointed out that in order to improve the skills in measuring the risk of breach of contract in corporate bonds we should focus on the credit rating method at present while developing statistical modeling actively and creating conditions for the use of insurance concept models.