我国经济波动与财政政策波动的关联性分析——兼论我国财政政策的相机抉择与自动稳定机制

Analysis on the Relations Between Business Fluctuation and Fiscal Policy Fluctuation in China --Fiscal policy: Discretion vs. Automatic stabilizers

通过对我国经济与财政政策波动的有效度量,文章利用脉冲响应函数和线性回归模型对两者关联性进行的研究表明:经济与财政政策波动具有很大的相似性和互扰性;经济波动引致的财政收支波动具有明显的不对称性,并成为我国自1994年财政赤字产生的主要原因;经济波动与财政政策波动之间存在不完全的双向因果关系,其中,经济波动引致的财政收支变化对经济波动的反向调节力度较小,并具有明显的时滞,而相机抉择机制引致的财政收支外生变化对经济的反向调节虽然时滞较短,但工具之间存在明显的协调失灵;财政政策波动对经济波动的作用效果具有明显的不对称性,扩张性政策较紧缩性政策好,相机抉择机制较自动稳定机制好。

Based on efficient measurement of business fluctuation and fiscal policy fluctuation, this paper utilizes impulse response and linear regression to analyze the relations between them quantitatively. It is found that, since 1978, their fluctuations have been quite similar interfering with each other, but fiscal revenue and expenditure fluctuation elicited by business fluctuation is asymmetric, which can be explained as a major cause of fiscal deficit since 1994. Two-way Granger causality doesn't exist between them completely, elicited fiscal revenue and expenditure have smaller influences on business fluctuation, and there exists an evident time-lag. Although discretionary fiscal policy has shorter time-lag, coordination failure exists evidently between revenue and expenditure policy; their effects on business are asymmetric. As long as efficacy is concerned, expansionary policy is better than contractive policy, discretion better than stabilizers