中间汇率制度安排的理论沿革与中国实践借鉴

Theory Evolution of Intermediate Regime and their Implication for China

汇率目标区理论和有管理的浮动制度理论作为两种主要的中间汇率制度理论,各有其优缺点。国际汇率制度的演变并未明显地呈现出汇率制度的选择收敛于两极制度,中间汇率制度仍将继续构成未来实际汇率制度的重要组成部分。一国汇率制度的选择只能按照严谨的成本收益分析,根据本国的经济结构和经济特点,与其他国家的政治博弈能力,以及其他影响汇率制度选择的主导性因素,选择成本最小而又最适合本国实情的汇率制度。在中国金融渐进开放过程中,人民币汇率制度的变革趋势应是选择符合中国实情的中间汇率制度,同时要逐渐扩大人民币汇率浮动幅度。

This paper compares the advantages and disadvantages of two types of dominating intermediate regimes, which are target zone and managed floating exchange regime, based on its credibility and flexibility. From the point of view of the change of exchange rate regimes, the choice of exchange rate regimes in developed and developing countries do not clearly appears the trend that the exchange rate regimes convert to two core regimes. No wonder the intermediate regimes continually play an important role in the choice of the exchange rate regimes, and would be chosen by some countries in the future. For any country that wants to choose the exchange regime, which adapts to its actual circumstances and has the minimization of cost, should make costbenefit analysis that base on the economic structure, economic characteristic, the power of game with other countries, and the other leading factors that could influence on the choice of exchange rate regimes. In the course of China financial sector openness to other countries, the reform trend of the RMB exchange rate regime should choose intermediate regimes that adapts to china actual circumstances, under this exchange rate regime, the floating range ought to be gradually enlarged.