火电企业面临的经营风险与对策分析

Analyses on the Operation Risk and the Corresponding Policy for the Thermal Power Enterprises

近期政府在预期电力产能过剩时加快实施电力竞价上网和电煤价格放开,火电企业的经营环境正在发生质的转变。电力产能过剩、电力竞价上网和电煤价格放开对火电企业经营都是重大减利因素,它们在同一时间出现而且对发电时数、上网电价和燃料成本等影响火电企业盈利的三个最主要的变量产生同向交叉影响,进一步放大了火电企业经营风险。本文通过火电企业盈利模型确定影响火电企业经营的主要变量,分析预测电力产能过剩、电力竞价上网和电煤价格放开对火电企业经营的影响,并提出规避经营风险的对策。

Recently the power-generating capacity is forecasted to surpass the demand, and the government speeds up the processes of the on-grid bidding for power and the deregulation of coal price, which will lead to a thorough change of the environment in which the electricity-generating enterprises run business. The surplus of electricity supply, the on-grid bidding for power, and the deregulation of coal price are three critical factors that may cause the electricity-generating enterprises losses. And the coincidence of the three factors would create a negative cross effect on the hours of electricity-generation, the on-grid bidding price of electricity, and the expenditures on coal, which directly influence the profitability of the electricity-generating enterprises. These would aggravate the operation of the electricity-generating enterprises to a greater degree. Based on the profit-making model, this article analyses and forecasts the influence of the surplus of electricity, the on-grid bidding for electricity and the deregulation of coal price on the electricity-generating enterprises, and give the corresponding suggestions to avoid operation risk.