灰色系统理论应用于渔船船舶事故统计分析及预测

The Application of the Grey System Theory in the Fishing Vessel Accident Analysis

运用灰色系统理论中的关联分析和GM(1,1)预测方法,对分别来源于中国、英国、加拿大的渔船海事事故数据进行了实例统计分析及预测,为我国船舶事故统计分析定量化提供了新的思路,可供水上交通安全管理参考.

In this paper, the incident degree analysis and GM（1,1） predicting methods of Grey System Theory are used in the fishing vessel accident analysis. And the accident data from China, England and Canada are analysed as examples. These methods provide news ideas for quantitative research on the national water traffic safety management and thus are of great reference value.