灰色-马尔柯夫链理论在水稻二化螟预测上的应用

Application of Gray-Markov's Chain Theory in Prediction for Incidence of Chilo suppressalis

根据湖南省湘潭县1994—2003年来水稻二化螟发生面积的统计数据，分别应用GM（1，1）和灰色-马尔柯夫链理论与方法，对该地区二化螟发生面积进行预测。预测值与实际发生值比较发现，GM（1，1）模型和灰色-马尔柯夫链模型10年平均预测变化率分别为10．56％和6．18％，后者大大提高了预测的准确度，显示了灰色-马尔柯夫链理论在某些农业灾害预测中应用的优势。

Based on the statistic data of Xiangtan County during 1994- 2004, the field area of Chilo suppressalis incidence in this region was predicted with Grey Model GM（ 1, 1） and Gray-Markov＇ s chain theory respectively. The results of comparing prediction values with incidence values showed that the resultant mean varying rate of 10 years obtained by GM（1,1） and Gray-Markov＇ s chain theory was 10.56 % and 6.18 % respectively, indicating higher accuracy of the prediction and application advantage of Gray-Markov＇ s chain theory in some aspects on the prediction for agronomy disasters.