中国转轨时期金融深化与经济增长关系实证分析

An Empirical Analysis on the Relationship between Financial Deepening and Economic Growth during China's Transitional Period

文章采用协整检验与基于VAR模型的Granger因果关系检验,分析了改革开放以来我国金融深化与经济增长之间的关系。研究表明,金融深化与经济增长既存在长期的稳定关系,也存在双向因果关系。因此,在促进我国经济增长的战略中,要充分重视金融深化因素的作用。同时通过聚类分析表明,我国金融深化进程以1991年为界限划分为前后两个阶段,在前一个阶段中经济增长主导金融深化,而在后一个阶段中金融深化主导经济增长。

This paper applies Granger causality test and co- integration analytical tools to investigate the relationship between economic growth and financial deepening of China in the period of 1978 - 2004. The conclusion indicates that the relationship between them keeps steady in the long run. The Granger causality test shows that there is mutual causality between economic growth and finial deepening. So we must strengthen the efficiency of financial deepening in the strategy of economic growth. Also, the analytical tool of classification shows that financial deepening of China can be divided into two stages by 1991. In the first period, economic growth dominates financial deepening and in the second period, financial deepening dominates economic growth.