基于模糊多目标多人决策的配电网空间负荷预测

Spatial Load Forecasting of Distribution Network Based on Fuzzy Multi-objective Multi-Person Decision Making

提出了一种新的空间负荷预测方法,在进行空间负荷预测用地类型决策时引入了模糊多目标多人决策。考虑各个相关空间因素,采用模糊语言算子区分各因素的相对重要程度,引入层次分析法将语言算子转化为精确权重,多个专家各自独立决策,综合考虑多人决策得到最终用地类型。多人决策降低了以往空间负荷预测用地分析的主观性,提高了预测精度。

A new spatial load forecasting method is proposed, in which the fuzzy multi-objective multi-person decision making is led into land-use decision making for spatial load forecasting. Considering associated spatial factors and distinguishing relative significance levels of these factors by fuzzy language operators, the language operators are transformed into accurate weights by analytical hierarchy process, through independent decision making of each expert and comprehensively considering multi-person decision making the final type of land-use is obtained. The subjectivity of land-use analysis in former spatial load forecasting is reduced by multi-person decision making and the accuracy of load forecasting is improved.