中国农村人口迁移模型探索——一个对“民工荒”现象新的解释

Research on Theories of Rural Migration in China——A New Explanation to Shortage of Rural Labor

本文构造了一个理论模型,得出了人口流动均衡条件,从而对“民工荒”现象做出了新的解释。本文的结论是迁移成本和就业概率决定了迁移人口的规模;农村工业部门的发展不仅分担城市就业压力,还缩小农民流动规模;农产品价格波动表示的农业剩余波动使得劳动力无限供给神话提前破灭,但并不意味着二元经济的终结。

This paper creates a model based on new hypothesizes in order to give a new powerful explanation to the phenomenon of shortage of rural labor. After analysis we conclude that the cost of migration.employment rate and the price of agriculture products influence a lot. But it doesn＇t mean that it is the end of the dual economic, contrary it means it will endure for a long time.