河北省教育生命表及人口发展下的教育需求预测

Hebei Province Education Life Table Analysis and Education Demand Forecast Under the Population Development

未来人口的发展对各级教育的需求起内在的决定性作用,而教育发展是提高人口素质、培养人才的基础,教育在现代化建设中具有先导性、全局性作用。随着经济的发展和社会的进步,人们的平均教育年限逐年提高,教育需求呈扩大趋势。但未来人口规模和结构变动,使河北省未来20年内各级教育的需求状况又会出现不同程度的波动。通过编制河北省教育生命表,结合河北省未来人口的预测,能够对河北省的教育状况进行分析,并能通过各级升学率的变动观察毛入学率的变动,从而为确定未来毛入学率提供可靠的计算工具,对教育需求作出科学预测。

The population development will play the intrinsic decisive role to all levels of educations demand in future, and the education development is to improve the population quality and to foster talent＇s foundation, which has an overall important function in the modernization. Along with economical development and society＇s progress, people＇s average education of years enhances year by year, the education demand assumes the expanded tendency. But the future population scale and the structure change, all levels of educations demand condition in 20 years will be able to appear the varying degrees in Hebei Province. Through establishing education life table, Hebei Province future population forecast will be able to carry on the analysis of the education condition in Hebei Province, and all levels of proportions of students entering schools of a higher grade will be provided for the determination reliably, and the education demand can be forecast scientifically.