汇率传递的经济增长效应研究

Effects of Exchange Rate Transitivity on China's Economic Growth

本文认为,人民币汇率升值压力增大与经济增长速度回落是目前我国宏观经济调控面临的一个两难抉择,汇率政策的调整应以经济增长目标为依据,重点考虑汇率传递的经济增长效应。汇率波动传递机制的研究结果表明,汇率波动以价格和利率为媒介可以形成直接传递效应和间接传递效应,并最终影响宏观经济增长。若以利率媒介为着眼点,汇率波动的传递机制可以用拉姆齐—卡斯—库普曼斯模型来描述,并通过拉姆齐—卡斯—库普曼斯测度的构造来描述汇率波动对经济增长的影响程度,指导汇率政策的优化与调整。实证研究结果表明,拉姆齐—卡斯—库普曼斯测度对于我国汇率传递经济增长效应的描述具有一定的适应性和可操作性。

This paper points out that the adjustment of exchange rate policy should be based on the target of the economic growth of our country and that main consideration should be paid to the growth effect of exchange rate transitivity. The findings of the transitive mechanism for fluctuating exchange rate indicate that the fluctuation of exchange rate caused by price and interest rate can produce direct and indirect transitive effects and in the long run affect c growth If we take exchange rate as the medium, the transitivity of exchange rate fluctuation can be explained by Ramsey-Cass-Koopmans Model.