松花江干流(哈尔滨段)春季最低水位预测方法

Prediction Method of Lowest Water Level of Songhua River Mainstream in Spring

利用1949～2003年松花江（哈尔滨段）最低水位资料,分析松花江干流（哈尔滨段）春季最低水位变化规律和典型枯水年成因,分析了其与松花江、嫩江等松花江流域面雨量的相关性,与拉尼娜、厄尔尼诺、太阳黑子等的关系.以松花江、嫩江、第二松花江流域7～11月面雨量总和及前一年松花江干流（哈尔滨段）最高水位为因子,预测2004～2013年松花江干流（哈尔滨段）最低水位.利用方差周期方法、均生函数方法对2004～2013年拉尼娜、厄尔尼诺、太阳黑子及松花江、嫩江、第二松花江流域月面雨量进行预测,并以此预测对2004～2013年松花江干流（哈尔滨段）最低水位进行订正,得出预测结论.

Using the lowest water level data of the mainstream of Songhua River from 1949 to 2003 at Harbin, an analysis is made of the causes and variation regularities of low-level water for the typical low water-level years, the correlation between the water levels of Songhua River and the rainfall of Songhua River, Nenjiang River, etc., and the relation with La Nina, El Nino, sunspot activities, etc. Based on the total areal rainfall of the Songhua River, Nenjiang River, and the second Songhua River from July to November and the highest water level of the Songhua River mainstream of the previous year at Harbin, the lowest water levels of the Songhua River at Harbin from 2004 to 2013 are predicted. Utilizing the periodical analysis of variance and the method of mean generation function, predictions are made of La Nina, El Nino, sunspots and the monthly mean areal rainfall over the Songhua River, Nenjiang River, and the second Songhua River regions from 2004 to 2013. Hereby, the lowest water level predictions of Songhua River at Harbin from 2004 to 2013 are revised.