水库调度预报服务风险分析及其应用

Risk Analysis of Forecasting Service for Reservoir Dispatching and Its Application

水库上游入库洪水量是水库风险调度的主要风险因素。根据灾害风险分析原理,对水库调度预报服务存在的风险进行分析,结果表明降水量预报值和径流系数估算值的准确率是影响水库调度预报服务的风险要素,从而在此基础上建立了实用风险分析模型。同时介绍了在0216号台风“森拉克”影响时,该风险分析模型在水库调度预报服务中的应用,并计算了经济效益。该模型对水利部门调度决策有一定的参考价值。

The upstream flood water is the major risk factor of reservoir risk scheduling. According to the principles of disaster risk analysis, the risk of weather forecasting service for reservoir dispatching is analyzed. The results indicate that the veracity of precipitation forecast and stream modulus are the major risk factors of forecasting service for reservoir dispatching. An practical risk analysis model is thus built. The model was used in the forecasting service for reservoir dispatching during the attack of typhoon Sinlaku, and the economical benefit is calculated. The model has proved useful for the decision-making of water conservancy.