“制衡”的困境——均势与二十一世纪的世界政治

Dilemma of Balancing: Balance of Powe r and World Politics in the 21^(st) Century

尽管均势理论在现代国际关系理论体系中一直占有重要地位,但随着冷战结束和苏联瓦解,这一理论却开始面临严峻的挑战,其中最突出的挑战之一来自冷战后开始并持续至今的单极世界格局。均势理论面临这一挑战的原因,就在于以往的理论家们总是将均势及相关各种命题看作一种适用于任何国际体系的普遍真理,但事实上很少有哪种理论是普遍正确的,它们一般都带有各种限制条件,均势理论也不例外。由于均势理论是在近代以来欧洲国家体系的经验基础上形成的,因此这一理论的主要限制条件之一是,它所揭示的那种历史上欧洲各大国对各种霸权觊觎国的制衡倾向,针对的主要是那种以庞大陆军力量为基础的陆上霸权,而不是那种以贸易、金融和海军为基础的海上霸权。这一限制条件对我们正确理解当今世界政治有着极为重要的意义。

The theory of Balance-of-Power h as always had an important position in modern theories of international relation s. However, since the end of the Cold War and the collapse of the Soviet Union, it has been confronted with increasingly bigger challenges, among which the mos t serious one is the so-called “unipolar” in contemporary world. Balance of P ower and relevant propositions had been considered universal and applicable to a ny international systems. But the fact is, few theories could be universal, as some scope conditions must be satisfied in order to put a theory into practice. In this respect,Balance of Power is not an exception. And, as the theor y is developed on the power system in modern Europe, its most important scope co ndition is that the tendency of balance illustrated by European great powers in history is against those land-based military powers in the form of large army r ather than those global maritime powers based on trade, finance and navy.