航天器与短期空间碎片云碰撞概率算法

Algorithms of Collision Probability between Spacecraft and Short-Term Debris Clouds

讨论了航天器与碎片云碰撞概率的提法,介绍了不同碰撞概率间的转换方法。在航天器轨道和碎片云中心轨道都确定情况下,研究了碰撞概率的一般算法;并根据C-W方程推导了只在短时间内有效的简化碰撞概率算法。最后通过蒙特卡洛法验证了简化算法的正确性。

The kinds of collision described. General collision probability between spacecraft and debris clouds are studied. Different probabilities are mentioned, and methods to convert these probabilities are methods for calculating impact probability are introduced in the case that orbit errors are not considered. Simplified algorithms are described based on C-W equation, which are valid in short time. These simplified algorithms are verified by Monte Carlo method.