2008年北京市大气质量的灰色预测

GREY PREDICTION OF AIR QUALITY IN THE YEAR OF 2008 IN BEIJING

运用灰色关联分析方法对北京市大气主要污染物质进行了分析,得出PM10、TSP和SO2是主要污染因子。在此基础上,运用灰色系统理论建模方法,分别建立主要污染因子的预测模型。运用该模型预测出到2008年北京市的TSP和PM10仍不能达到国家二级标准。在今后几年内降低颗粒物的污染是北京市大气污染控制工作的首要任务。

A result is obtained that PM_(10) ,TSP and SO_2 are the main factors of the atmospheric pollutant in Beijing by grey relational analysis.Based on the result,a forecasting model of main pollution factor is established by using grey systems.The forecasting result is that TSP and PM_(10) will exceed the national standard Ⅱ in the year of 2008 in Beijing.In the next years,the most important tasks of air pollution control in Beijing are to reduce the particulate pollution.