中国货币政策中介目标的实证研究

An Empirical Study of Intermediary Target of Monetary Policy in China

以普勒基本分析理论为基础,对我国货币供应量作为货币政策中介目标的合理性和效率性进行分析。结果表明目前我国基础性冲击仍然主要来自于商品市场,并且货币供应量与真实GDP之间存在着长期均衡关系,因此货币供应量作为中介目标仍然具有理论上的合理性,但是合理性并不一定意味着效率性,本文通过granger因果检验对货币供应量的低效性进行了证明。在实证分析的基础上对上述问题的产生原因进行了分析。

This article attempts to analyze the rationality and efficiency of money supply as intermediary target of monetary policy in Chi- na based on the Poole＇ s basic analysis theory. Currently, our country＇ s basic impulsions are mainly from conmmodity market, meanwhile a long-run equilibrium relationship between the money supply and real GDP exists. However, rationality does not lead to efficiency. This article will prove the low efficiency of money supply target through granger causality test. Furthermore it will discuss the main cause of the empirical study result.