货币供应量和利率作为货币政策中介目标的适用性

货币供应量增长率变化对通胀变化有着明显影响,因此现阶段继续使用货币供应量作为货币政策中介目标仍具有一定程度的合理性。在货币流通速度不稳定的情况下,继续使用货币供应量作为货币政策中介目标,可将中介目标动态化。在利率形成机制尚不完善、银行间利率变动与经济景气变化之间的互动关系非足够强的情况下,银行间利率作为货币政策中介目标是否可行,尚须进一步观察。应加快利率市场化进程,为使用银行间利率作为货币政策中介目标创造条件。当前可继续使用货币供应量作为中介目标,同时对银行间市场利率进行监测,条件成熟时发布货币市场利率预测值,作为中介目标转向货币市场利率的过渡。

The purpose of setting intermediate target of monetary policy is to set a direction and a range for the central bank to take macro- control, which is true for either monetary aggregate or interest rate being taken as intermediate target. It is still acceptable to some extent to use monetary aggregate as intermediate target because the change of monetary aggregate increasing rate has significant effect on the change of price level increasing rate in China at current stage. Monetary aggregate may be taken as intermediate target in a dynamic way under the ease of unstable monetary velocity. It needs time to make sure that ff it is feasible to use inter- bank interest rate as intermediate target in the case of imperfect interest rate formation mechanism and rather weak correlation between change of inter - bank interest rate and economic cycle at the same time. Interest rate liberalization should be accelerated to prepare for using inter- bank interest rate as monetary policy intermediate target. Inter- bank interest rate should be monitored while using monetary aggregate as intermediate target at current stage. The forecast value of money market interest rate may be released as temporary step for replacing monetary aggregate with money market interest rate as monetary policy intermediate target when it is possible and necessary in the future.