中国资本市场效率实证分析——直接融资与间接融资效率比较

探索转型时期资本市场效率问题具有非常重要的意义。本文严格按照资本市场的定义,将中长期信贷市场、股票市场和债券市场都纳入综合考虑,对转型时期我国资本市场效率、资本市场与经济增长的关系进行了系统的分析。通过动态模型实证,发现我国资本市场间接融资(中长期贷款)与固定资产投资的比率的提高对经济具有负作用影响,但随着金融改革的深化,其负面影响逐步降低;相对来说,资本市场直接融资与固定资产投资的比率的提高对经济有着积极的作用,且其积极作用越来越明显。为此,建议在推进资本市场的改革和开放中,要不断提高直接融资的比重,建立多层次、多产品的市场体系。

Strictly based on the definition of capital market and also taking account of mid - long term credit market, stock market and bond market, the paper systematically analyzes China＇ s capital efficiency and the relation between the capital market and economic growth in transferring period. Through dynamic model demonstration, it discovers that higher ratio of indirect financing to the fixed - assets investment has negative effect on economy. But along with the deepening financial reform, the negative effect reduces gradually. Relatively, higher ratio of the direct financing of capital market to the fixed- assets investment has an active effect on economy, which is more and more obviously.Therefore,it is suggested that the proportion of direct financing should be continuously increased while boosting the innovation and development of capital market with multi - layers and products.