双重调控下的货币政策绩效研究

The Study of the Performance of Monetary Policy

货币供给与利率之间存在着相互作用、相互影响的内生关系。本文认为正是货币供给量与利率之间这种内生联动效应,在双重货币政策调控下才导致了货币供应量与利率调控目标间的冲突性。我国对货币供应量实行的是间接调控,对存贷款利率实行的是直接调控。双重调控并行打乱了货币供应量与利率之间的内在联系,降低了货币政策的绩效。央行只能优择其一作为中介目标,而不能够同时有效地控制货币量和利率。本文最后用VAR脉冲检验了这一结论。并据此提出为实现单一市场化的间接调控,必须加快利率市场化步伐的政策建议。

There is interactive endogenous relation between money supply and interest rate. The paper points out that this kind of relation has just caused the monetary policy conflicts under dual adjust ＆ control. In China monetary supply is indirectly controlled while the deposit and loan interest rate is directly controlled. This dual adjustment and control disorders the inter- relation between money supply and interest rate, and also reduces the performance of the monetary policy. The Central Bank can only realize one goal but not control money supply and interest rate effectively at the same time. Finally the conclusion is tested by VAR impulse response, The suggestion is that in tinter to realize single and market - based indirect adjusments and eontwls, China should accelerate the paces of interest rate liberalization.