注资博弈与中国农信社改革

Game in Capital Injection and Reform of Rural Credit Union System

近年来,人们对由中央政府承诺注资而启动的新一轮农信社体制的改革充满期待。可以说,这种期待不无道理,因为中央政府针对此次改革所彰显的态度和所推行的举措是如此果敢。当下,此项果敢的改革行动仍在持续。伴随着决策层对改革积极成果浓墨重彩的正面宣传,有关方面对改革目标、战略、方法和成效的质疑也从未停止。最终绩效如何,社会各界正拭目以待。本文的研究发现,此次中央政府的注资行动引发的仅仅是又一轮政府间的金融博弈。具体而言,以政府间利益博弈为主线而展开的农信社改革行动无一例外地将农村金融的真正需求者始终置于事外,从而使每一次改革行动都将注定沦为各方参与者对改革收益的瓜分游戏。本文的分析结论是,对于中国农村信用合作社体制乃至农村金融制度改革,最为关键的是,如何有效弥合传统与现代、现实与未来之间的鸿沟,在保持现有体制稳定的情况下,引入新的博弈主体,改变现有博弈格局,构建一个充分考虑金融需求者现实要求的农村内生金融体制。

A new round reform of the rural credit union system has already been underway for years. However, it remains to be seen whether this round will finally achieve its planned target. The paper points out that what the recent capital injection will bring about is no more than another round of game among governments at different levels. The real fund demanders in rural areas are still not taken into consideration and stay as outsiders. Actually, the key is to construct an endogenous rural financial system that takes demanders into full consideration.