利率风险与我国城镇居民消费行为

Interest Rate Risk and Consumption Behaviors of Households in Urban Areas

消费者在面临未来的不确定性时,会改变他的消费行为:减少当前消费,增加储蓄,即预防性储蓄。本文用利率的条件方差来度量利率的不确定性,使用ARCH(1)模型刻画我国的利率风险,并研究了利率风险对我国城镇居民不同类型消费行为的影响。实证结果表明利率风险对经常性消费影响很小,但是对于娱乐教育文化服务和商品房的消费具有显著滞后的抑制作用,同时商品房消费对利率风险的反应要比其他类型的消费更为敏感。因此实施稳健的货币政策,规避利率风险对拉动消费有积极的作用。

The paper uses ARCH model to calculate the conditional variance of interest rate as the uncertainty, and studies the rehtionships between the interest rate risk and various consumption behaviors of urban households in China. The results show that interest rate risk has little effect on regular consumption, while has a lagged significant effeet on consumption of recreation, education, cultural services and commercial residential buildings. Moreover, the comumption of commercial residential building is more sensitive to the interest rate risk than other types of living expenditurc. Therefore, to implement a steady monetary pelicy and to avoid the interest rate risk will have a positive function to stimulate consumption.