人民币实际有效汇率和对外贸易收支的关系——中美和中日双边贸易收支的实证研究

Empirical Relationship between Real Effective Exchange Rate and Bilateral Trade Balance of China with the USA and Japan

本文分别对中美、中日双边贸易收支与人民币实际有效汇率之间的关系采用协整技术进行了实证研究,并对实证结果进行了比较。实证结果表明,人民币有效汇率对中美贸易收支和中日贸易收支的影响是不同的。无论长期还是短期人民币有效汇率与中美贸易收支之间均不存在因果关系,但是中日贸易收支与人民币有效汇率之间互为因果关系；人民币有效汇率对中美贸易收支和中日贸易收支均不存在J-曲线效应。据此,本文认为,变更人民币汇率并不是改善中美、中日双边贸易收支的有效工具。

This paper, using cointegration techniques, discusses the empirical relationship between real effective exchange rate （REER） of RMB and bilateral trade balance of China with U.S. and Japan respectively. The study shows that the real effective exchange rate of RMB has different influence on the bilateral trades balance of China with U.S. and Japan. There is no causal relationship between REER of RMB and U. S. -China trade balance in the short run or in the long run, but it is not the truth for the Sino-Japan trade balance. The results also indicate little J-curve effect from REER to U. S. -China trade balance in the short run but not in the long run. It is impossible to resolve bilateral trade imbalance of China with U. S. and Japan with attempt to have RMB＇s exchange rate floated.