油气圈闭勘探决策思路和方法再讨论

A further discussion on concept and method of making oil/gas trap exploration decision

基于油气勘探工作的分阶段性,油气勘探决策阶段可划分为盆地选择决策、区带选择决策和圈闭选择决策3个阶段,各勘探决策阶段决策的性质、目的、原则和方法不同。油气圈闭勘探决策是短期、阶段性的战术决策,因此,它不考虑前期勘探的投入和后期的开发投入,从而避免了以前油气勘探决策工作陷入到“繁文缛节”的难于实际操作的境地。油气圈闭勘探决策只根据圈闭勘探阶段优选圈闭的目的,以最小的风险、最少的投入,获得最多的储量为决策的原则,采用圈闭勘探投资极限确定、圈闭综合排队和圈闭钻探风险分析的方法,实现在给定的投资下,从已落实的圈闭中优选出一批勘探风险最小,能获得最多储量的圈闭。或在给定的储量任务下,筛选出一批勘探风险最小,勘探成本最低的圈闭,作为下一步油气勘探的钻探目标。应用油气圈闭勘探决策的思路和方法,结合四川盆地川西坳陷圈闭勘探决策的实际资料,优选了位于绵竹-盐亭中部隆起带、龙泉山熊坡断褶带、鸭子河-平落坝隐伏断褶带和什邡-邛崃中央向斜带的10个圈闭,列为当前勘探阶段的钻探目标。

In view of petroleum exploration would usually be made by stages, petroteum exptorauon stage can ,e divided into basin selection, play selection and trap or prospect selection three decision phases, each with different characters, goals, principles and methods. Prospect exploration decision is to make a short-term and phasic tactical decision, without considering earlier exploration expenditures and later development expenditures, so as to avoid falling into previous redundant circumstances without operability. Prospect exploration decision-making takes selection of the best traps or prospects as the goal, and takes obtaining maximum reserves with minimum risk and cost as the principle. If exploration investment is given, a batch of prospects with the lowest exploration risk and largest reserves will be screened out from the selected prospects through determination of the exploration investment limits, comprehensive ranking of the prospects and analysis of exploratory drilling risk of the prospects. Alternatively, if a reserves target is given, prospects with the lowest exploration risk and exploration cost will be selected as the next drilling targets. Ten prospects that are located in Mianzhu-Yanting central uplift zone, Xiongpo fault-folded belt in Longquanshan area, Yazihe-Pingluoba buried fault-folded belt and Shifang-Qionglai central synclinal zone are selected as the drilling targets in current exploration phase, by using the concept and method of prospect exploration decision-making and in combination with the actual data in the western depression of Sichuan basin.