中国生育政策的系统模拟与比较选择——以浙江省为例

Systematic Simulation and Comparative Selections of China Fertility Policy: A Case Study of Zhejiang Province

文章以浙江省为例,以分年龄、性别独生子女、非独生子女数据为基础,对未来46种生育政策方案、2665种方案组合,经过长时期、大跨度的模拟测算,多指标联合逐步淘汰法定量和定性的比较选择,结果表明,兼顾人口数量控制、年龄结构改善、经济社会发展需求、资源环境可持续发展的需要,现行生育政策可再稳定15～20年。

Taking Zhejiang as a case and based on demographic data, this paper simulates the long-term trends of population development of 46 possibilities of fertility policies and total 2665 combined options, and stepwise balances the advantages and disadvantages among these plans. The study shows that for the multiple purposes of controlling the quantity of population, optimizing the age structure of population, and satisfying the demand of economic development and social progress, and facilitating sustainable development of natural resources and environment, it would be better to maintain the current fertility policy for another 15-20 years.