基于农户净收益最大化的宏观乡城迁移模型

The Macro Model of Rural-urban Migration Based on the Maximization of Farmer's Net Revenue

文章从中国的乡城迁移是农户家庭在一定的约束条件下通过调整家庭劳动在城乡间的配置追求家庭预期净收益最大化的行为这一假设出发,建立了基于农户劳动配置预期净收益最大化的宏观乡城迁移模型,从而把制度、生活成本和农村非农产业等变量引入模型,把非永久乡城迁移、回流和非永久乡城迁移向永久乡城迁移的转换纳入分析框架,并从简化的模型入手分析了各种因素对乡城迁移宏观流量的影响,并利用统计数据对模型进行了初步的检验。

Based on the assumption that farmers under constraints reallocate labor between local rural work and migration to cities for maximizing expected net revenues, this paper constructs a macro model of the rural-urban migration, in which variables such as institutions, living costs, and rural non-agricultural businesses are introduced to analyze the factors determining the flux of the macro migration.