甘肃省人口与资源环境耦合的演进分析

Evolutional Analysis of Coupling between Population, Resources and Environment in Gansu Province

甘肃省生态环境脆弱,经济欠发达,人口与资源环境的矛盾突出。作者建立评价指标体系,用协调度模型研究1990～2004年甘肃省人口与资源环境耦合的演进态势。研究结果表明,甘肃省人口综合发展水平呈线性增长,资源环境综合状况波动下降;人口和资源环境的耦合关系由轻度失调趋向中级协调,后又转向初级协调;资源环境容量空间有限,可持续发展面临巨大压力。因此,应选择人口与资源环境良性互动的协调发展模式。

This paper uses coordinate degree model to study the dynamics of coupling status of population resources and environment in Gansu province from 1990 to 2004. The results show that (1) comprehensive capability of population development has increased linearly, while the sustainability of resources and environment has unsteadily fallen, (2) the coupling relationship between population, resources and environment has moved from slight maladjustment to lower harmony, and (3) the capability of resources and environment is further limited, which challenges the region's sustainable development.