矿业城市发展的数学模型——以嘉峪关市为例

A mathematical model for mining city——taking Jiayuguan City as an example

在深入剖析矿业城市发展特点的基础上,根据矿业城市生命周期中不同阶段的具体特点,分阶段建立了矿业城市发展历程的数学模型,给出了矿业城市可持续发展的模式化表述．利用嘉峪关市1978～1993年的数据资料确定了模型中的部分参数,并对扩展期方程进行了验证,绘制了嘉峪关市这一时段的理论预测值和实际值的对比曲线,其变化趋势完全一致,说明该模型能够较好地描述矿业城市的发展过程．嘉峪关市作为矿业城市已走过了它的鼎盛期,其可持续发展问题值得关注。

Based on the basic features of a mining city and according to the different characteristics of each stage in its life cycle, this paper established a mathematical model of developmental course of mining cities and given modelization expression on sustainable development. Then data on Jiayuguan City were used to calculate some parameters of the equations and to test the model. We think this model could well describe the course of development of a mining city.