测拟合度与投资价值研究

A Study on the Measurement of Correspondence Degree and the Value of Investment

笔者采用方向测度变量和序次测度变量,运用logistic模型来研究盈利预测的拟合程度以及潜在的投资价值影响动因。结论表明:不可控因素和可控因素对盈利预测的拟合度同时产生着影响。由于中国证券市场监管体系不健全,盈利预测信息的质量不能令人满意。投资者必须充分考虑到公司盈利预测信息的局限性,对资产利用效率差、偏重非主营业务的公司的预测尤其要采取谨慎的态度;而对上市公司来说,做盈利预测时应采取实事求是的态度,为投资者提供真正有用的决策工具。

The author focuses on earnings forecast information by which investors make decisions. Correspondence degree means the direction and extension of gap between the actual and the forecast information. In determining the fluctuating direction and affecting driving factors, direction and sequence model is adopted. Based upon the objectives of the research and relevant statistical model adopted, the conclusions are reached that both controllable and uncontrollable factors are effective, investors must consider limitations of earnings forecast information and listed companies should provide truly useful tools for the decision making of investors.