我国入境旅游和经济增长关系分析

Research on the Relationship between International Tourism and Economic Growth in China

文章分析了入境旅游发展的区域差异,并用Granger因果检验来考察入境旅游和各区域经济增长之间是否存在相应的因果关系,Granger因果检验的结果表明在东部地区,入境旅游和经济增长存在单向因果关系,东部地区的入境旅游对区域的经济增长产生显著影响。但是全国和中西部地区的入境旅游与经济增长之间不存在显著的因果关系。类似地,东部地区入境旅游增长是其第三产业增长的Granger原因,但是全国和中西部地区的入境旅游和相应区域第三产业的增长并不存在显著的因果关系。在区域层面上,只有少数区域支持入境旅游是区域GDP增长的Granger原因,它们是东部地区的北京、广东、上海、天津、福建、江苏、浙江、海南和广西;中部地区的黑龙江和湖南以及西部地区的云南和陕西。在这些省区市,入境旅游对区域经济增长产生显著的影响。但总体而言,入境旅游在我国还没有足够的发展。

In this article, we analyze the regional difference of international tourism development. Moreover, we use the Granger Causality Test to inspect the effect of international tourism on regional economic growth, and find that a oneway causality relationship between the international tourism and economic growth exists in east region of China. We find that the international tourism has a critical effect on regional economic growth in east region of China. But there＇s no distinct causality relationship between the international tourism and economic growth in whole country level, especially in middle and west region. Similarly, the growth of the international tourism is a Granger cause of third industry growth in east region. But there＇s no distinct causality relationship between the international tourism and third industry growth in whole country level, especially in middle and west region. In province level, the international tourism is a Granger cause of GDP growth in several regions, such as Beijing,Guangdong, Shanghai, Tianjin, Fujian, Jiangsu, Zhejiang and Hainan in east region, Heilongjiang, Hunan in middle region, Yunnan, Shanxi and Guangxi in west region. In these provinces, the international tourism has significant effect on regional economic growth. In summary, we conclude that international tourism does not develop adequately in China, especially in Gansu and Qinghai.