运用WOFOST模型对浙江水稻潜在生长过程的模拟与验证

Simulation and Validation of Rice Potential Growth Process in Zhejiang by Utilizing WOFOST Model

通过2001～2003年在金华市和2004年在杭州市的水稻田间试验，应用WOFOST模型对浙江水稻潜在生长进行了模拟和验证。对于常规晚稻秀水11和杂交晚稻协优46，用2001年和2002年的试验数据作参数校正，得到一套参数后，用2003年试验数据作模型验证；对于单季稻两优培九，则以2004年试验数据用于校正，2003年的用于验证。通过对几种水稻品种模拟结果的综合分析，主要结论如下：WOFOST模型可以成功地用于浙江主要水稻品种潜在生长过程的模拟，可以较好地分析浙江水稻的生长过程和产量潜力。由WOFOST模型计算得到浙江中部地区连作晚稻的生产潜力为8100kg／hm^2左右，中稻为9300kg／hm^2左右。目前两种水稻的实际平均产量分别为模拟产量的78％和70％。判断结果表明，有必要对目前水稻中、后期的田间管理措施进行重新审视。

A crop growth model of WOFOST was calibrated and validated through rice field experiments conducted from 2001 to 2004 in Jinhua and Hangzhou, Zhejiang Province. For the late rice variety Xiushui 11 and hybrid rice Xieyou 46, the model was calibrated to obtain parameter values using the experimental data of years 2001 and 2002, then the parameters were validated by the data of 2003. For single cropping hybrid rice Liangyoupeijiu, data of 2004 and 2003 were used for calibration and validation, respectively. WOFOST model was good in simulating rice potential growth process in Zhejiang. It can be used to analyze the process of rice growth and yield potential. The potential yield obtained from WOFOST was about 8100 kg/hm^2 for late rice and 9300 kg/hm^2 for single cropping rice. The current average yield is only about 78% （late rice） and 70% （single cropping rice） of their potential yields. The results also showed that the current practice of management at the middle and late growth stages of rice should be reexamined and improved to reach optimal rice growth.