基于火灾统计数据的火灾形势综合评价和定量预测

Fire comprehensive evaluation and quantitative prediction based on fire statistic

火灾统计分析是研究火灾随机性规律的有效方法,它通过总结、整理和分析大量的火灾原始资料,归纳出火灾发生的统计规律。利用多属性综合评价法可对火灾统计数据进行深层次的开发和利用;同时应用预测学原理,建立了我国火灾形势的二次指数平滑预测模型,结果表明火灾总体呈发展趋势。

Every year fire as one kind of disasters with probability and certainty not only kill thousands of people, injure tens of thousands more, and destroy billions of property. In order to reduce the risk of fire incidents, it is necessary to do some research on fire science and fire safety engineering, revealing the law and nature of fire. Fire statistical analysis is one of the most effective means, with summarizing and analyzing a mount of fire source material. Fire statistic is completed by Fire Service Bureau, Ministry of Public Security in China. Nowadays we usually adopt fire incidents, death, injury and direct loss, that is calling four fire index, with simple and superficial way, to evaluate and analyses fire, It has many disadvantages. This paper will still focus on analysis of fire statistical data, with multi-attribute comprehensive evaluate, and set up two-power exponential smoothing model of fire trend basing on the principium of prediction, the result indicate that the tendency of fire is developing. Also the results of fire comprehensive assessment and prediction can guide on decision making in fire risk management.