运用模糊综合评判法评价铁路工程承包风险

FUZZY COMPREHENSIVE EVALUATION TO RISK OF THE RAILWAY PROJECT CONTRACT

研究目的铁路施工企业工程承包中潜藏着众多不确定风险,这些风险涉及面广、影响因素多、损失危害程度高,在投标时采用有效的方法对工程承包风险进行准确分析,可以提高投标决策效率,进而提高工程效益。研究方法在充分研究铁路工程承包风险因素的基础上,介绍了层次分析法和模糊综合评价法用于铁路工程承包风险分析评价的步骤方法,为铁路工程承包风险分析和评价提供了定性与定量相结合的综合评价方法。研究结果通过中铁十六局投标兰武二线乌鞘岭隧道实例演示了操作过程,证明了该方法的科学性和可行性。研究结论在铁路工程承包中,风险是客观存在的,且具有较大的不确定性和模糊性。用模糊数学工具将许多观念性的难以精确度量的风险因素量化,既克服了传统优化法仅限于解决定量问题的缺点,又弥补了采用经验估计的方法较难解决复杂问题,且容易产生偏差又不易得出确切结果的不足,大大提高了决策效率和准确性。因此将模糊综合评判法应用到铁路工程承包风险评价是科学合理的。该方法在实际应用中所面临的主要困难是对专家意见的采集和处理。

Research purposes：Aiming at the variable cause and the high degree of destroy and damage of the railway project construction risks, this paper explores an effective appraise method combining nature and quality together so as to improve the bid efficiency and the construction benefit. Research methods：Based on the fully analyze of the risk of the railway project construction, the method of Analytic Hierarchy Process and Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation in comprehensive appraisal for Railway Project Contract risk was detailed described. Firstly, the risks in the railway project contract, including technological risks, environmental risks, personal risks, have been penetrated in to and the appraise index system was build up based on the risks analysis. Then, every risk factor was given a relatively mark by the experienced technical staff to form the estimate matrix following by the principle of analytic hierarchy process. So the significance weights of the appraise indexes were calculated. Thirdly, every risk factor was given a mark by experts consulting the criterion of risk grade, so the subjection function and subjection matrix formed. Muhiplayer fuzzy comprehensive evaluation was carried on to give the final result. Research results：At the end of the text, the case of China Railway 16TM Group Co. , Ltd bidding for tunnel named Wu Shaoling which belongs to the Lan Wu railway was applied to qualify scientific and feasibility of the method. Research conclusions：This text will offer some reference to the risk management for railway project contractor.