长治市冰雹天气的气候特征分析

Analysis on the Meteorological Feature of the Hail Weather in Changzhi City

针对长治市在1980—2003年发生的冰雹灾害天气,从时间尺度、时空地理分布、月年际变化、冰雹源地、冰雹主要影响路径以及降雹关键日等方面进行了分析,为冰雹灾害天气预报提供了可靠的气候背景。另外对500hPa天气图进行了分析,给出了长治降雹的3种(冷槽型、冷涡型、西北气流型)天气形势。应用最优子集回归法对500hPa,850hPa图上高空指标站温度、温度露点差、风向、风速进行定量化选取,给出了冰雹灾害天气预报的某些参数及综合性预报指标。

In the light of the reliable meteorological background hail disaster weather of Changzhi City in period for forecasting the hail disaster weather through of 1980-2003, this paper provides analyzing the time scale, time-space geographical distribution, inter-annual and inter-month variation, hail source regions, main hail impacting routes, and key days of hailfaU, etc., analyzes on the 500 hPa weather map to present three kinds of the weather situations of the hailfall in Changzhi City, and by using the optimum subset regression, makes quantitative selection of the temperature, dew-point spread, wide direction and wind speed of the altitude index station on the 500 hPa and 850 hPa weather maps in order to provide some parameters and aggregative indicators for the hail disaster weather forecasting.