货币政策传导地区差异:实证检验及政策含义

The Regional Differences of Monetary Policy Transmission——Empirical Tests and Implications

文章根据1997年1月至2004年8月的样本数据对货币政策传导的地区差异问题作实证研究,利用向量自回归(VAR)模型和冲击响应函数的计量分析手段,分别对全国层面、区域层面以及省级层面的货币政策传导效果进行估计和比较。结论表明,东部地区在货币政策传导速度和深度上都大大优于中西部地区,东部地区的绝大部分省市对货币政策表现出高度的敏感性,而中西部地区大部分省市的反应则相对迟钝,金融发展水平、企业规模和产权性质、开放程度的地区差异是导致货币政策传导存在地区差异的主要因素。

This paper investigates the issue of the regional differences of monetary policy transmission based on the monthly data from January 1997 to August 2004. We estimate and compare the effect of monetary policy on the whole country, individual regions and provinces. The findings suggest the efficiency of monetary policy transmission in eastern area is better than that in central and western area in terms of the transmission speed and depth, and most of the eastern cities are highly sensitive toward the monetary policy. The regional differences in the development of finance, scale and property right of enterprises, and the degree of openness are major factors that lead to regional differences of monetary policy transmission.