摘要
本文在总结国内外有关文献的基础上,构建了国债与利率、通货膨胀的动态稳定性分析理论框架,并利用月度VAR模型检验我国国债余额与短期利率、通货膨胀的关系,发现国债虽对实际利率和通货膨胀有一定作用,但影响小得可以忽略不计,说明改革开放以来的中国财政总体是稳定的,最后是简短的结论和政策建议。
After the existing literature is reviewed, a theoretical framework is developed for the fiscal dynamic stability. Then monthly VAR models are estimated empirically, which shows that there＇ s little effects of public debt on interest and inflation, implying that China fical policy from 1979 on is sustainable the whole. Finally the policy implication is concluded.
出处
《经济研究》
CSSCI
北大核心
2006年第4期35-46,共12页
Economic Research Journal
关键词
财政赤字
政府债务
财政稳定性
利率
通货膨胀
Fiscal Deficit
Public Debt
Fiscal Stability
Interest Rate
Inflation
