影响人民币实际汇率长期趋势的因素研究

Research into the factors influencing long-term Renminbi real exchange rate trends

本文对人民币实际汇率的长期变动趋势进行了实证研究。通过协整模型构建了实际汇率与劳动生产率、政府消费和贸易条件之间长期的均衡关系,并通过误差修正模型考察了实际汇率短期内的动态调整过程。结果表明,无论在短期还是长期,生产率的变动对人民币实际汇率的变动都起着最重要的作用,但是对实际汇率的变动方向与巴-萨效应预测的相反。这可能是因为中国的经济发展阶段不适用其假设,劳动力的无限供给、政府消费和贸易条件等其他因素亦影响着人民币实际汇率的变动趋势,说明即使是在长期内,巴-萨效应的假设也不能成立。政府能够通过财政支出来影响实际汇率短期波动和长期变动趋势,从而影响我国产品在国际上的价格竞争优势。

This paper makes positive study on long- term Renminbi exchange rate change trend, uses co-integration model to build equilibritrn relationship between real exchange rate and productivity and between govemmental consumption and trade condition, and uses error - correction model to examine short - term dynamic adjustment process d real exchange rate. The result indicates that productivity change play an important role in Renminbi real exchange rate change irrespective of short - term or long- term and that real exchange direction is reversal of Balassa - Samuelson Effect anticipation. This is because the anticipation is not suitable for economic development period of China, because labor force unlimitedly supplies, because govemmentconsumption and trade condition affect Renminbi exchange rate change trend. Balassa - Samuelson Effect anticipation is not suitable even in long-term condition. Govemment can use financial expenditure to affect real exchange rate to vibrate in short - term and long- term in order to help Chinese product to have price advantage in international market.