目标对抗条件下反舰导弹突防概率计算与分析

Calculation and Analysis of Penetration Probability of Anti-Ship Missile for Target Countermeasure

针对反舰导弹攻击水面舰艇的特点,在分析目标舰艇对反舰导弹发现概率的基础上,研究了目标舰艇采用各种手段对抗来袭导弹时对反舰导弹突防概率的影响。设计了分别适应冲淡干扰、转移干扰、质心干扰、对空导弹抗击和近程火炮抗击的一系列数学模型,并推导出突防概率的计算公式,仿真分析验证了所建立模型的正确性。该公式不仅考虑到了目标舰艇对来袭导弹的发现概率,而且顾及到了可能用到的所有对抗手段,比较符合实际情况,由此得出的结论对水面舰艇攻击战术有一定的参考价值。

Based on the analysis of target ship＇s discovering probability against anti-ship missile, the penetration problem of anti-ship missile has been researched under the condition of the target ship taking various ways against homing missile, and then ,the calculation formula of the penetration probability of anti-ship missile have been obtained. Simulation analysis has testified the validity of the calculation model. The conclusions that we obtained have reference for the surface-ship＇s tactics.