重特大火灾对南京市火灾发生影响规律的时间序列研究

Time Series Study of How Serious Fire Impact on Fire Occurrence in Nanjing

本文采用时间序列法分析中国江苏省南京市每月火灾发生次数受该时间段内江苏省特大火灾以及南京市重特大火灾的影响规律。在对原始数据依次进行了异常点剔除、季节调整后,运用时间序列干涉模型对调整后的数据序列进行滞后分析,分析结果表明通常重特大火灾的影响可持续三个月。

Time series method was used to analyze the impact of serious fires on the fire occurrences in Nanjing from January 1997 to December 2003. By removing the outliers in the irregular component of original data series and seasonal adjustment, Intervention Model was used to model the impact on the fire occurrence rate for every month. The results showed that the impact lasts over three months normally.