工程项目风险评价方法研究

On the method of engineering project risk evaluation

风险评价是工程项目管理的重要内容之一.在借鉴国内外工程项目风险评价问题研究成果的基础上,从工程项目风险管理的角度构建了工程项目风险评价的多层评价指标体系;该体系由政策风险、环境风险、业主风险、设计者风险、监理者风险、承包商风险等6个一级指标及其20个二级指标组成;提出运用自我评价法和标杆评价法来评价工程项目的风险,建立了相应的数学模型;运用两种方法对工程项目风险进行评价.

Risk evaluation is veryimportant in project management. The paper probes into the problems among researching the engineering project risk; At present the research of engineering project risk. evaluation is still in the probing stage. In the combination of the achievements obtained both at home and abroad, a multilevel evaluation index system of engineering project risk has been constructed in the paper. The system consists of 6 grade Ⅰ indexes and 20 grade Ⅱ indexes as policy management, surroundings risk, owner risk, deviser risk, supervisor risk and contractor risk. Also, self-evaluation and benchmarking-evaluation methods of two kinds are suggested to evaluate the engineering project risk, and their corresponding mathematic models are established in this paper.