长江水质的评价和预测

Evaluation and Prediction of the Quality of the Water in the Yangtze River

通过对长江干流各监测点的污染程度及产生原因的定量分析,按照治污目标要求,基于过去十年的水质报告资料分别建立了以Ⅳ类、Ⅴ类水的比重和与劣Ⅴ类水的比重为因变量的长江总流量,污水总量为自变量建立二元线性回归方程,经检验回归方程显著。并基于此回归模型结合未来十年的污水排放量预测值,给出了每年须治污水量的参考方案。分析结果与日趋严重的污染相吻合。为环保机构制订长江治污措施提供决策依据。

Through the ration analysis of the degree of pollution and its causes in the monitor place in the artery of Yangtze River, according to the requirements of the goal of pollution control, batsed on the data of water quality of the last ten years, we established a dualistic regressive liner equation, which considers the density of both the Ⅳ Ⅴ kinds of water and the inferior V kinds of water as its result variable, and regards the quantity of polluted water as the cause variable. The equation proves to be very distinguishing. Based on this model,combined with the predicted result of the quantity of drained polluted water in the coming ten years, it puts forward the reference method of decreasing polluted water for every year. The analyzed result is in accordance with the increasing serious pollution. It provides evidence for the environmental institution to make policy for the pollution control of the Yangtze River.