房地产周期运行分析与预测

The Analysis and Forecast of Realty Periodicity

本文通过研究自1986年以来中国房地产产业发展全程,发现中国的房地产业和宏观经济周期存在明显的正向相关规律,笔者进而从房地产商品属性、房地产市场特征以及宏观经济政策等几个方面分析不同因素对房地产周期性波动的影响,以期更好地判断当前中国房地产业所处的周期位置及近期的可能趋向。

With the study on the developmental process of China＇s realty business, we have found there is a positive correlationship between China＇s reality and the periodicity of macro economy. Generally speaking, the realty property, the realty market character and the macro economic policy have something to do with the periodic undulation of realty. The thesis will try to analyze how these different factors affect the periodic undulation of realty in order to judge the current periodic position and the trend of the realty business.