1994-2005年期间人民币有效汇率的测算与分析

Analysis of the RMB＇s Effective Exchange Rate from 199-2005

人民币有效汇率是人民币与多种货币汇率的贸易加权平均汇率，是反映人民币在国际贸易中实际购买力的综合指标。本文利用1994-2005年的季度数据测算了人民币名义和实际有效汇率，并对其变化原因进行了分析讨论。研究认为，就保持我国产品出口竞争力和控制进口成本而言，政府更应关注人民币实际有效汇率而不是名义汇率的变化。从实现稳定和持续发展的需要看，我国有必要加快向浮动汇率制过渡。

The RMB＇s effective exchange rate is average rate weighted by the nominal exchange rate between the RMB and other currencies, which reflects the RMB＇s purchasing power in international trade, This paper analyzed the RMB＇s nominal and real effective exchange rate using quarterly data from 1994-2005, The results show that the government should give priority to the RMB real effective exchange rate when considering the international eompetitiveness of Chinese goods, and that China should improve the transition to a floating exchange rate re gime for stability and the sustainability of development,