上市公司如何在非理性世界中确定股权回报率

On How to Set Rate of Equity Returns for Listed Companies in An Irrational World

确定股权回报率是进行长期投资决策的关键步骤,但在现实非理性世界中难以直接运用传统财务理论所推荐的资本资产定价模型来确定股权回报率。针对FAR与NEER方法,本文首先探讨这两类方法的理论依据并揭示其本质内涵,然后说明:在非理性世界中,如果上市公司管理者追求公司价值最大化目标,那么就应该基于公司项目的基本风险来确定股权回报率;相反地,如果管理者追求近期股价最大化,那么就应该基于市场投资者的预期来确定股权回报率。

To set rate of equity returns is a critical step for long-term investment decisions, but in a realistic irrational world, it＇s not easy to do that using CAPM familiar in standard financial theory. In view of FAR and NEER, this paper firstly discusses the theoretical foundations of the two kinds of methods, and then reveals their essential connotations, aiming to indicate that： in an irrational world, ff managers of listed companies pursue the goal of maximizing corporate value, they should set hurdle rates based on the fundamental risk of the project; on the contrary, if managers want to maximize stock market price in the short run, they should set hurdle rates based on market investors＇ expectancy.